by Under_Pressure » March 26, 2021, 12:04 pm
I have no more knowledge than anyone else here, and probably less than many. That said, a couple comments- one, I think many underestimate how strong the manufacturing economy is, particularly for hard goods and capital goods. As someone working in heavy manufacturing, it is nuts, and demand for raw materials of all kinds is through the roof. Yes, it's largely driven by loose monetary policy and may come crashing down, but for better or worse, it's reminiscent of the mid-2000s when she was brought out of mothballs last time.
Second, some of the longer term trends may work in the Ryerson's favor because she is NOT a traditional self unloader. Typical self unloaders are EXTREMELY efficient at delivering the bulk cargoes as we know them on the lakes, but essentially useless for anything else. I think the trend towards DRI/HBI will continue in order to provide a feedstock derived from raw ore that is compatible with electric arc furnaces. Thus, we may start to see some non-trivial level of DRI or HBI shipment on the lakes. I don't know all the details, but it seems to me that these types of products (particularly briquettes, which Cliffs is invested in) may lend themselves better to shoreside unloading equipment using electromagnets. Also, we know the new Mark Barker (while still a self unloader) is being built with a flat bottom and flat sides in its hold in order to be able to accommodate non-bulk cargo, and shuttling steel slabs between mills has been mentioned. Clearly Interlake thinks there is some future for non-bulk cargo transport. Perhaps the Ryerson could be used similarly if that is part of Cliffs' business model for their Great Lakes-adjacent mills. Yes, these uses would likely require modification to the cargo deck and hatches, which isn't a small thing, but I wouldn't see why it's not possible.
I have no more knowledge than anyone else here, and probably less than many. That said, a couple comments- one, I think many underestimate how strong the manufacturing economy is, particularly for hard goods and capital goods. As someone working in heavy manufacturing, it is nuts, and demand for raw materials of all kinds is through the roof. Yes, it's largely driven by loose monetary policy and may come crashing down, but for better or worse, it's reminiscent of the mid-2000s when she was brought out of mothballs last time.
Second, some of the longer term trends may work in the Ryerson's favor because she is NOT a traditional self unloader. Typical self unloaders are EXTREMELY efficient at delivering the bulk cargoes as we know them on the lakes, but essentially useless for anything else. I think the trend towards DRI/HBI will continue in order to provide a feedstock derived from raw ore that is compatible with electric arc furnaces. Thus, we may start to see some non-trivial level of DRI or HBI shipment on the lakes. I don't know all the details, but it seems to me that these types of products (particularly briquettes, which Cliffs is invested in) may lend themselves better to shoreside unloading equipment using electromagnets. Also, we know the new Mark Barker (while still a self unloader) is being built with a flat bottom and flat sides in its hold in order to be able to accommodate non-bulk cargo, and shuttling steel slabs between mills has been mentioned. Clearly Interlake thinks there is some future for non-bulk cargo transport. Perhaps the Ryerson could be used similarly if that is part of Cliffs' business model for their Great Lakes-adjacent mills. Yes, these uses would likely require modification to the cargo deck and hatches, which isn't a small thing, but I wouldn't see why it's not possible.