by Geest » May 18, 2021, 7:40 am
For the Ryerson to run and run profitably she needs:
1. High ore prices, with forecasts to remain high
2. Destinations that can offload her
3. Crew familiar with her plant
4. Low fuel prices, with forecasts to remain low.
Right now that list is missing some key check marks.
Ore prices and international demand may float interest enough to have Cliffs/CML kick the tires, but I don't think there is enough long-term stability to warrant the reactivation cost from a multi-year layup.
Offload facilities are probably the most limiting factor for the Ryerson. Of the US mills that still have operational waterside bridge cranes, most haven't been used to offload a vessel in years if not decades. IIRC Indiana Harbor just demolished their bridge cranes on the West side, so that's one less option and as far as I know neither Burns Harbor, Gary or Cleveland have any offloading equipment in place for bulkers. This limits her to international trade to Hamilton, Quebec or other saltwater Canadian ports in the Seaway, where she will have to compete with Algoma and CSL for profitable business.
Crewing the engineering plant is likely going to be difficult as steam turbine vessels are getting rarer in the ocean commercial trades for the US Flag fleet. The largest remaining source of labor would have to be ex-USN engineers coming off the Burkes, Ticos or big Amphibs.
Fuel costs versus her competitors are another stumbling block. The majority of the Canadian fleet is either newbuilt or newer than the Ryerson. All run on diesel and most have vastly more efficient plants in terms of consumption and exhaust than a steam turbine plant running on heavy fuel oil. I'd imagine any thought of retrofitting the vessel with scrubbers is cost prohibitive when added to the already hefty bill of getting her ready to trade again.
For the Ryerson to run and run profitably she needs:
1. High ore prices, with forecasts to remain high
2. Destinations that can offload her
3. Crew familiar with her plant
4. Low fuel prices, with forecasts to remain low.
Right now that list is missing some key check marks.
Ore prices and international demand may float interest enough to have Cliffs/CML kick the tires, but I don't think there is enough long-term stability to warrant the reactivation cost from a multi-year layup.
Offload facilities are probably the most limiting factor for the Ryerson. Of the US mills that still have operational waterside bridge cranes, most haven't been used to offload a vessel in years if not decades. IIRC Indiana Harbor just demolished their bridge cranes on the West side, so that's one less option and as far as I know neither Burns Harbor, Gary or Cleveland have any offloading equipment in place for bulkers. This limits her to international trade to Hamilton, Quebec or other saltwater Canadian ports in the Seaway, where she will have to compete with Algoma and CSL for profitable business.
Crewing the engineering plant is likely going to be difficult as steam turbine vessels are getting rarer in the ocean commercial trades for the US Flag fleet. The largest remaining source of labor would have to be ex-USN engineers coming off the Burkes, Ticos or big Amphibs.
Fuel costs versus her competitors are another stumbling block. The majority of the Canadian fleet is either newbuilt or newer than the Ryerson. All run on diesel and most have vastly more efficient plants in terms of consumption and exhaust than a steam turbine plant running on heavy fuel oil. I'd imagine any thought of retrofitting the vessel with scrubbers is cost prohibitive when added to the already hefty bill of getting her ready to trade again.