by Guest » November 10, 2021, 1:02 pm
As someone who witnessed the turmoil in the Great Lakes shipping industry during the 1980s, I have to say that today there is even less of a reason to be optimistic about the future. One of the biggest differences between then and now is that the coal trade was still growing whereas today the coal trade for power consumption is in its final days. This trade will not recover as the facilities it served are being dismantled. That will be the end of the story unless new routes open up for export to other nations still using coal-fired power plants.
As for iron ore shipments, I would expect to see these continue their downward trend as has been the case for the past several decades. This comes from a variety of factors such as increased steel-making efficiency, imported steel, and the growth of minimills that use scrap steel. There appears to be little if any upgrades being done to the integrated steel mills upon which the majority of the ore moved on the lakes is required and as these plants age it will become increasingly difficult to justify their continued operation.
Although some might argue that cargoes have rebounded since the 2009 crash, the level to which the iron ore carriage has fallen skews the apparent health of the trade. For example in 2020 the ore trade amounted to 37.1 million net tons when in 2010 it was 42 million net tons. Compare this to 50 years earlier in which the ore carriage for the 1960 season, although good in terms of ore movements but not as good as several other seasons during the 1950s, amounted to just over 81 million net tons. The gradual, but steady decline of the domestic steel industry can be traced back to the 1950s steel labor strikes that allowed the influx of imported steel into the North American market. It is likely the downward trend in the movement of ore will bottom out eventually, but what that level will be is anyone's guess at least from an enthusiast standpoint without the benefit of experience with the inner workings of the steel industry.
The bottom line of all of this is that in the future there will be even fewer ships and more importantly fewer employment opportunities for those wishing to work on the lakes. There is no doubt building of the barge units over the past two decades and the Mark W. Barker currently in its final stages of construction are encouraging signs. However, the simple fact is that the next newest powered vessels in the US fleet are now 40 years old with several others now reaching 70 years in age. Although many of the older ships have been modernized, there can be little question that they will eventually need replacement within the next 10-20 years if there is sufficient demand. With no apparent plans to begin any new construction programs by any US operators, one must question what will the future hold for the US fleet.
As someone who witnessed the turmoil in the Great Lakes shipping industry during the 1980s, I have to say that today there is even less of a reason to be optimistic about the future. One of the biggest differences between then and now is that the coal trade was still growing whereas today the coal trade for power consumption is in its final days. This trade will not recover as the facilities it served are being dismantled. That will be the end of the story unless new routes open up for export to other nations still using coal-fired power plants.
As for iron ore shipments, I would expect to see these continue their downward trend as has been the case for the past several decades. This comes from a variety of factors such as increased steel-making efficiency, imported steel, and the growth of minimills that use scrap steel. There appears to be little if any upgrades being done to the integrated steel mills upon which the majority of the ore moved on the lakes is required and as these plants age it will become increasingly difficult to justify their continued operation.
Although some might argue that cargoes have rebounded since the 2009 crash, the level to which the iron ore carriage has fallen skews the apparent health of the trade. For example in 2020 the ore trade amounted to 37.1 million net tons when in 2010 it was 42 million net tons. Compare this to 50 years earlier in which the ore carriage for the 1960 season, although good in terms of ore movements but not as good as several other seasons during the 1950s, amounted to just over 81 million net tons. The gradual, but steady decline of the domestic steel industry can be traced back to the 1950s steel labor strikes that allowed the influx of imported steel into the North American market. It is likely the downward trend in the movement of ore will bottom out eventually, but what that level will be is anyone's guess at least from an enthusiast standpoint without the benefit of experience with the inner workings of the steel industry.
The bottom line of all of this is that in the future there will be even fewer ships and more importantly fewer employment opportunities for those wishing to work on the lakes. There is no doubt building of the barge units over the past two decades and the Mark W. Barker currently in its final stages of construction are encouraging signs. However, the simple fact is that the next newest powered vessels in the US fleet are now 40 years old with several others now reaching 70 years in age. Although many of the older ships have been modernized, there can be little question that they will eventually need replacement within the next 10-20 years if there is sufficient demand. With no apparent plans to begin any new construction programs by any US operators, one must question what will the future hold for the US fleet.