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Re: First Footer to Scrap

by Guest » May 8, 2025, 10:31 pm

Guest wrote: May 8, 2025, 5:56 pm I have friends on the blast furnace crew at Dearborn. They are not optimistic . These guys aren’t pessimists.. 🤷just passing on what I’ve learned talking to them. USS kept receiving pellets at zug island right up until they shut the final operating furnace down. They spent 1 million+ $ to reline ( maybe d furnace?) never to ever use it again. Transshipped the pellet pile to Gary. Cliffs could easily ship pellets to Middletown from Dearborn. I hope it makes smoke again but we all know how fast changes happen to these traditional mills.
When the Dearborn steel mill was owned by Severstal, didn't they build a new blast furnace (C) to replace an existing one, I think that was around 2005-2007?

As blast furnaces go, it's pretty young and US Steel rebuilt Blast Furnace 14 around the same time.

Looking at how the industry has declined since 1982, I'm glad I made the decision in 1985 not to go to college for marine engineering and instead went into computer studies.

Re: First Footer to Scrap

by Guest » May 8, 2025, 6:54 pm

Guest wrote: May 8, 2025, 5:56 pm
Guest Jon Paul wrote: May 8, 2025, 7:08 am
Guest wrote: May 5, 2025, 11:14 pm There will be no new integrated mills built in the US anywhere. Outdated technology, labor intensive with higher labor and production costs plus the ongoing water and air pollution. EAF is the now and the future..once there were 3 stable busy mills in Detroit. Now no blast furnaces are belching smoke. Cliffs says Dearborn idling is temporary. I doubt that… where will be the US laker growth be?
If Cliffs Dearborn isn't just a temporary idling why is Interlake currently delivering pellets several times a week
I have friends on the blast furnace crew at Dearborn. They are not optimistic . These guys aren’t pessimists.. 🤷just passing on what I’ve learned talking to them. USS kept receiving pellets at zug island right up until they shut the final operating furnace down. They spent 1 million+ $ to reline ( maybe d furnace?) never to ever use it again. Transshipped the pellet pile to Gary. Cliffs could easily ship pellets to Middletown from Dearborn. I hope it makes smoke again but we all know how fast changes happen to these traditional mills.
I could see Dearborn being brought back into operation but at far below capacity until that is no longer needed and then it will be shuttered. The bottom line here is that the US flagged shipping industry is unlikely to rebound. Despite all of this talk of bringing steel production back into the US, no steel company is going to make investments into blast furnace steel mills with any, and I consider this to be very minimal at best, production capacity does get brought back to domestic operations it will go toward electric arc furnace mills. I realize this view is not agreeable to some, and I do hope I'm being overly pessimistic, but after living in the Detroit area and watching the Great Lakes shipping industry for over 50 years I have the opinion that it is, unfortunately, a dying industry at least in regards to how it once was.

Re: First Footer to Scrap

by Guest » May 8, 2025, 5:56 pm

Guest Jon Paul wrote: May 8, 2025, 7:08 am
Guest wrote: May 5, 2025, 11:14 pm There will be no new integrated mills built in the US anywhere. Outdated technology, labor intensive with higher labor and production costs plus the ongoing water and air pollution. EAF is the now and the future..once there were 3 stable busy mills in Detroit. Now no blast furnaces are belching smoke. Cliffs says Dearborn idling is temporary. I doubt that… where will be the US laker growth be?
If Cliffs Dearborn isn't just a temporary idling why is Interlake currently delivering pellets several times a week
I have friends on the blast furnace crew at Dearborn. They are not optimistic . These guys aren’t pessimists.. 🤷just passing on what I’ve learned talking to them. USS kept receiving pellets at zug island right up until they shut the final operating furnace down. They spent 1 million+ $ to reline ( maybe d furnace?) never to ever use it again. Transshipped the pellet pile to Gary. Cliffs could easily ship pellets to Middletown from Dearborn. I hope it makes smoke again but we all know how fast changes happen to these traditional mills.

Re: First Footer to Scrap

by Guest » May 8, 2025, 5:39 pm

The biggest issues the Great Lake and St. Lawrence Seaway have are two things. The first is that the locks are too small for most of the world's shipping (Welland canal and Seaway) and the other is no year-round shipping. No company is going to change their mode of shipping because a waterway is closed for nearly three months of the year. They will not bother to use it at all.

Duluth did have a container crane built in 1975 for the Port Termnal but it was rarely used and eventually sold. The railroads have the container traffic nearly all to themselves in the US and Canada, and if another mode of transportation even thinks of nudging into that business, they change their freight rates to keep it.

Re: First Footer to Scrap

by Under_Pressure » May 8, 2025, 8:18 am

It would seem the geography of the lakes and the population distribution around them works against their being heavily used for cargoes beyond bulk commodities. All the lakes except Michigan are a border between two nations, and for the most part, areas of high population concentration are close enough to land crossings that rail and truck are viable options. On the lower lakes, the cross-lake distances are short enough that the advantages of marine transport (very low cost per ton-mile) are outweighed by the need to transload at either end to get from/to where they need to go.

Transporting general cargo (or passengers) east-west on either the US or Canadian side is not really viable for logistical reasons- about the only thing you could really make an argument for is having a rail terminal at someplace like Duluth to transload containers off trains from the west coast and then carry them by ship to someplace like Buffalo or Toronto, and I guess try to go the other way with cargoes from east coast ports. But even that MIGHT only possibly be worth thinking about for containers originating from places like Seattle/Tacoma, not the larger California ports. And again, almost certainly not worth the added transit time and costs to transload at either end, or someone would be doing it.

So all the lakes are left with are commodity bulk cargoes which are not time-sensitive, can be handled with relatively minimal port infrastructure (assuming a self-unloading vessel), and are particularly sensitive to transportation cost so minimizing the cost per ton-mile is of primary importance.

Lake Michigan is a bit unique- it is much longer north-south than east-west and it has relatively populated areas in the same country on both shores (at least the southern part). It is no coincidence that this is one of the only places on the lakes we see at least a small amount of commercially viable general freight and passenger movement with the ferries. But that's pretty unique, and even it is driven as much by nostalgia or the desire to simply not drive through Chicago (the shortest land route) as time or cost advantages.

Re: First Footer to Scrap

by Guest Jon Paul » May 8, 2025, 7:08 am

Guest wrote: May 5, 2025, 11:14 pm There will be no new integrated mills built in the US anywhere. Outdated technology, labor intensive with higher labor and production costs plus the ongoing water and air pollution. EAF is the now and the future..once there were 3 stable busy mills in Detroit. Now no blast furnaces are belching smoke. Cliffs says Dearborn idling is temporary. I doubt that… where will be the US laker growth be?
If Cliffs Dearborn isn't just a temporary idling why is Interlake currently delivering pellets several times a week

Re: First Footer to Scrap

by Guest » May 7, 2025, 9:54 pm

Scott wrote: May 7, 2025, 10:13 am I watched a interesting interview with President Trump the other night. He spoke to a stronger steel industry, less dependence on steel from overseas and more production from an increased number of steel mills. Keep in mind, there was a huge push to expand the length of the locks at the Sault which is finally being realized. Why would they do this if the shipping industry is in decline? I have confidence that the industry will rebound.
The new lock at the Soo replacing the Sabin and Davis locks had been authorized back in 1986. The issue was funding, and that is what congress couldn't agree on and hence took so long to iron out. In 2008 the USACE received funding for the construction of the temporary bulkheads at the west and east ends of the Sabin Lock, and not until 2017 or so when Trump made the big push for the new lock. But the delay from 1986 to 2017 on the actual construction of the lock was due to funding, and who would fund it.

Re: First Footer to Scrap

by Scott » May 7, 2025, 10:13 am

I watched a interesting interview with President Trump the other night. He spoke to a stronger steel industry, less dependence on steel from overseas and more production from an increased number of steel mills. Keep in mind, there was a huge push to expand the length of the locks at the Sault which is finally being realized. Why would they do this if the shipping industry is in decline? I have confidence that the industry will rebound.

Re: First Footer to Scrap

by Guest » May 6, 2025, 8:42 am

Custom500 wrote: May 5, 2025, 9:01 am I remember when the railroads were finished- a dead and dying industry! But none of those prognosticators considered the effects that human intelligence has on a situation. There are lots of mineral resources around the lakes. CT
The problem is the demand for these mineral resources moved on the lakes (including the movement for western coal) is declining. The closure and demolition of the coal power plants and the continued shrinkage of integrated steel mills, with both cases removing demand without direct replacement, will definitely adversely affect the remaining US fleet. From what I have witnessed over the past 50 years is that when the steel industry goes through these down cycles it usually translates into a further shrinkage among the integrated steel mills. As other posters have noted, the future lies with the electric arc furnace and this will reduce the demand further for iron ore. Despite the abundance of raw materials moved on the lakes, there has to be a demand for them to support a shipping industry. Therefore, I would expect that the US fleet will continue its shrinkage as older units are removed from service without replacement. I have also seen many references to the new Canadian vessels being one to one replacements. While that may be true in the current and recent sense, that is not entirely the case if one looks at the number of vessels (and their single trip carrying capacity) under the Canadian flag at the beginning of the 2000s and what is currently the number today, not to mention a comparison even further back to the 1990s or even the 1980s. Due to its greater economic reliance on the Great Lakes/St. Lawrence Seaway system, Canada has better supported fleet renewal especially with the removal of duties for offshore ship construction. The bottom line is the number of ships on the lakes will directly reflect the volume of demand for the movement of materials on the lakes. I don't believe that the shifting of general cargo away from trucks and rail to ships would ever work on the lakes. This has been tried several times before and has not met with much success.

Re: First Footer to Scrap

by Guest » May 5, 2025, 11:14 pm

There will be no new integrated mills built in the US anywhere. Outdated technology, labor intensive with higher labor and production costs plus the ongoing water and air pollution. EAF is the now and the future..once there were 3 stable busy mills in Detroit. Now no blast furnaces are belching smoke. Cliffs says Dearborn idling is temporary. I doubt that… where will be the US laker growth be?

Re: First Footer to Scrap

by Guest » May 5, 2025, 2:42 pm

Custom500 wrote: May 5, 2025, 9:01 am I remember when the railroads were finished- a dead and dying industry! But none of those prognosticators considered the effects that human intelligence has on a situation. There are lots of mineral resources around the lakes. CT
You make an excellent point. In the 1960s and '70s, it was widely believed that the railroad industry was outdated due to the bankruptcy of Penn Central (along with several other railroada) and the loss of the manufacturing industry in the Northeast. Many in the industry at the time believed that nationalization of the railroad industry would be the future. Instead four events occurred to make the railroad industry successful by the late 1980s First was the development of western coal from the Powder River basin starting in the early 1970s. Second was the reorganization of the bankrupt Northeastern railroads in 1976. Third was the passing of the Staggers Act in 1980 that deregulated most of the railroad industry. Lastly, the introduction of double-stack trains in 1983 by Southern Pacific that changed the railroad industry.

Saying all that, could we have a renaissance of shipping on the U.S. side of the lakes? (I didn't include the Canadian shipping industry because most recent scrappings have been due to one-to-one replacement of existing ships, and not a retrenchment in capacity that has been seen in the US in recent decades). Most raw steel production in the U.S. comes from Electric-Arc Furnaces, the majority of which are located in the South. I can't see additional integrated steel mills being built around the Great Lakes in the coming years, despite recent talk by the current administration for reshoring manufacturing back to the U.S. It wouldn't happen overnight, and there would have to be more certainty in the economy and wirh the the tariff regime then we've seen so far.

That's the other thing. Politics. Politics adds an extra question to the future of manufacturing around the Great Lakes. And that is something no one can forsee. Will the end results be beneficial or negative for the Great Lakes shipping industry, both U.S. and Canada, and what impact would that have on the thousand foot lakers? I'll leave it there.

Re: First Footer to Scrap

by Custom500 » May 5, 2025, 9:01 am

I remember when the railroads were finished- a dead and dying industry! But none of those prognosticators considered the effects that human intelligence has on a situation. There are lots of mineral resources around the lakes. CT

Re: First Footer to Scrap

by Guest » May 3, 2025, 11:23 pm

Duluth Guest wrote: April 24, 2025, 12:40 pm This was an interesting speculative read.

My thoughts are pretty much in line; the least efficient and specialized footers will likely be the first to be retired. I feel the Cort and Speer have to head this list. These hulls cannot efficiently haul anything other than taconite and must be loaded at a shiploader. The Gott falls in here too but her better unloading versitality, she might fall down the list somewhat. The big-5 Bay Ship Footers (Century, Integrity, Burns Harbor, McCarthy, Indiana Harbor) can haul both coal and taconite quite efficiently. The American Spirit and Paul R. Tregurtha are in a funky niche too since the Spirit is specialized for taconite and the Tregurtha is specialized for coal; they will have smaller cargo capacities for taconite. Presque Isle I think will be around for awhile despite her smaller taconite capacity since she can efficiently haul taconite, coal and limestone due to her shallower draft. When bulk cargo types begin to diminish, I think we may see the footers begin delving into the limestone trades as well which may allow the Miner and Barker to remain around. If I had to guess, I would say, baring some sort of disaster ( severe grounding, fire or structural issues) the order of the first 5 would be something like this:

1.) Cort
2.) Speer
3.) Tregurtha
4.) Spirit
5.) Gott
The Paul l R. Tregurtha as built was not intended for the western coal trade. That came about more by happenstance. In fact, her construction was part of a 20-year ore float contract for Republic Steel that Interlake Steamship took over from Cleveland-Cliffs Steamship company in 1980.

When the demand for iron ore pellets for Republic Steel declined due to the steel recession starting in 1980, the demand for western coal happened to increase at the same time. It was by luck that the western coal trade picked up significantly in 1984 for Interlake Steamship when they took over the Detroit Edison coal float contract from Cleveland Cliffs. And while the Tregurtha is efficient in the coal trade, and the administration favors the increased use of coal, not one utility around the Great Lakes is going to make a long-term commitment to built coal-fired power plants, when there is so much political and economic uncertainty in the country.

I don't agree that the fact that the Cort and the Speer having to load at a shiploader is a negative for either of them. The Edwin H. Gott, too, has to load at a shiploader, as do all of the other 56-foot deep hull hull of the other thousand-footers. Sure their shuttle booms limit them to Burns Harbor and Gary, but those two ships are very strongly built and with re-powering and upgrades can sail for many more years.

The only way I can picture a thousand-footer being retired in the 2020s, is if it were severely damaged, either by fire or a collision resulting in a sinking. And maybe a grounding if severe enough.

Re: First Footer to Scrap

by Duluth Guest » May 3, 2025, 6:17 pm

These days the decline in Great Lakes shipping volumes is often framed as an inevitability, but there are some underlying assumptions there that we can re-examine. When we do so, we may realize that Lakes shipping's stagnation/decline is an intentional policy decision more than an unchangeable destiny.

Each year millions of tons of heavy/dense/high flow-volume cargo moves between Great Lakes port cities by land transportation, mostly long-haul freight truck. This is not because trucks are more fuel or labor efficient over the long haul, quite the opposite. Instead, this is because transportation and energy policy over the past 5+ decades have aimed massive direct and indirect taxpayer-funded subsidies to un-balance the transportation system away from fuel and labor saving modes (marine) and toward less efficient, more high-maintenance (and not to mention more dangerous) ones.

It is almost unbelievable that trucks carry hundreds of thousands of tons per week of iron and steel, scrap metal, machinery, rubber and plastics, paper products, etc. long distances between Great Lakes cities that happen to have expansive, under-utilized port facilities. Here's what analysts discovered when they examined the flow of cargo in and out of just one major Great Lakes metropolitan area: https://www.hopaports.ca/wp-content/upl ... -FINAL.pdf - those kind of cargo flows, if re-directed to ships, would mean dozens more ships plying a number of trades on the Lakes.

If policy and subsidies were reformed to make the playing field level again, or even to encourage more efficient transport modes for a given cargo flow, we'd likely witness a major revival in Great Lakes shipping especially in the "general cargo" trades. The more heavy/high-volume cargo that moves by water vs. long-haul truck, the less expensive highway maintenance becomes, since heavy trucks create the majority of highway wear and tear, which taxpayers presently subsidize a significant portions of the cost for fixing. The more cargo moves by water vs. long-haul truck, the safer driving becomes for civilians, since mixing passenger cars with long-haul freight trucks on roads creates dangerous situations as we might know all too well. The more long-haul freight moves by water vs. trucks, the more the labor shortage in truck-driving can be eased, and the more truck drivers can focus on working the "last mile" sort of routes where trucking shines, i.e. moving goods where railroads or ships and barges can't reach.

A nice bonus to a major revival in Great Lakes shipping would be the return of the kind of boat-watching scene one might've enjoyed in the 1920s - 1970s. Imagine a parade of dozens more lakers carrying general cargo, agricultural goods, freight ferry traffic, etc. joining the present-day amounts of iron ore, coal, and stone traffic past, say, Port Huron, Port Colborne, and on waterfront towns and cities all around the region. It's not much of a pipe dream to think about this possibility; if the Great Lakes region were its own nation it would rank among the largest economies in the world. That cargo is already there, it's already moving, except right now it's in that 50' trailer stuck in weekend vacation traffic with you on the freeway vs. gliding past a waterfront park on the St. Clair river.

Re: First Footer to Scrap

by Guest » May 2, 2025, 12:29 pm

shipwatcher125 wrote: May 2, 2025, 6:32 am
Scott wrote: April 29, 2025, 10:32 am
Guest wrote: April 28, 2025, 10:45 pm I’ve been saying for the past 2 years that the us flag GL fleet will stabilize around 25 active ships by 2030 or sooner. With more blast furnaces being shut down the cargo demand will drop precipitously. It’s been a good run for 120 plus yrs but the handwriting is on the wall. It’s why fleets are having trouble with new entry sailors. No stable future.
And yet the Canadian Fleets keep adding newer vessels
They are basically doing a 1-1 replacement in the fleets. Only CSL has retained some of their older boats along with the addition of new hulls. Algoma has scrapped everything old with the exception of the JD Leitch. I don't expect to see the Buffalo around for long. Compass seems to have received a fair amount of attention over the last few years so they must expect to use that one for several more years.
The reduction/consolidation of the Canadian lake fleet has been significant since 2000 with the demise of the Paterson and the ULS fleets. That has surely reduced the overall size, and employment opportunities, of Canada's lake fleet even with the expansion of Rand's LLT fleet over the same time.

Re: First Footer to Scrap

by shipwatcher125 » May 2, 2025, 6:32 am

Scott wrote: April 29, 2025, 10:32 am
Guest wrote: April 28, 2025, 10:45 pm I’ve been saying for the past 2 years that the us flag GL fleet will stabilize around 25 active ships by 2030 or sooner. With more blast furnaces being shut down the cargo demand will drop precipitously. It’s been a good run for 120 plus yrs but the handwriting is on the wall. It’s why fleets are having trouble with new entry sailors. No stable future.
And yet the Canadian Fleets keep adding newer vessels
They are basically doing a 1-1 replacement in the fleets. Only CSL has retained some of their older boats along with the addition of new hulls. Algoma has scrapped everything old with the exception of the JD Leitch. I don't expect to see the Buffalo around for long. Compass seems to have received a fair amount of attention over the last few years so they must expect to use that one for several more years.

Re: First Footer to Scrap

by Guest » April 30, 2025, 7:28 am

Another factor in the reduction of the number of lake freighters has also been the lengthening of the regular shipping season with US ships commonly running into mid-January whereas in years past most would have been laid up sometime in December other than when the year round navigation operations were going on during the 1970s. At the same time, the start of the season has slowly crept forward into March from the traditional April. The extra cargoes moved in these additional weeks has surely had an effect upon how many ships would have been needed to carry the same amount of cargo over a shorter period of time.

Re: First Footer to Scrap

by Guest » April 30, 2025, 7:23 am

Guest wrote: April 29, 2025, 2:28 pm Not really relevant to the thread, but that’s not why there is a Mariner shortage. Many other causes and factors including stagnating pay, lack of entry level (OS/wiper) positions, and poor community outreach/word of mouth. Doesn’t really have to do with where the industry might sit in 5-10 years.
Without having experience working in the industry, I will take your word on this. I will, however, say that when I graduated from high school in 1986 I decided not to pursue a career on the lakes despite having wanted to do so from a very young age. This was primarily due to the lack of open positions and the uncertainty of retaining employment in the years to come due to the poor future outlook for US flagged shipping on the lakes at the time. There were more ships, along with larger crews, back in those days so I would expect that the outlook today is a deterring factor for some individuals considering to pursue this way of earning a living.

Re: First Footer to Scrap

by Guest » April 29, 2025, 2:28 pm

Not really relevant to the thread, but that’s not why there is a Mariner shortage. Many other causes and factors including stagnating pay, lack of entry level (OS/wiper) positions, and poor community outreach/word of mouth. Doesn’t really have to do with where the industry might sit in 5-10 years.

Re: First Footer to Scrap

by Scott » April 29, 2025, 10:32 am

Guest wrote: April 28, 2025, 10:45 pm I’ve been saying for the past 2 years that the us flag GL fleet will stabilize around 25 active ships by 2030 or sooner. With more blast furnaces being shut down the cargo demand will drop precipitously. It’s been a good run for 120 plus yrs but the handwriting is on the wall. It’s why fleets are having trouble with new entry sailors. No stable future.
And yet the Canadian Fleets keep adding newer vessels

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