Replacement tonnage

[Jon Paul]

The Joyce V/GLT have been running many of the stone routes usually done by Laura/JT and the rest have been split between the Clyde/ET and Dirk/MT.
They are a busy fleet. Clyde/ET is already on trip #48 the Dirk/MT is on trip # 36 and Joyce/GLT is on trip # 42.

[ashland69]

I’ve been saying the same thing on here for past 3-4 yrs . Everyone calls me pessimistic😂. Not so. Just realistic looking at the big picture. By the end of this decade it will be a parade to the scrappers. Lots of sailing jobs lost. If you’re an engineer you’re good to find great work onshore. Deck? If ya can’t retire by then it’s deep sea. Sad outlook

No, guest, you're not being pessimistic. You're looking at reality as it really is. I personally see the day soon coming when there will be, literally, only a handful of lakeships on the Lakes. And most will be tug-barge combos. Also, if not being done already, I see ocean ships carrying cargoes between Canadian and American ports as they bring cargo from overseas to Great Lakes ports. For example, American grain to Canadian ports and maybe even vise versa - Thunder Bay to Milwaukee or Chicago. I also envision the end of the Jones Act because, for amongst other reasons, whether you realize it or not, Canada, the United States and Mexico are one of a handful of trading blocks around the world and can be construed to be one country at this very moment, because of NAFTA-2.

Anyway, I agree, VTB will likely do nothing. At least, not until winter lay-up, if at all. But, of course, like in so many things, we'll see. Now, who's pessimistic?!😂

[Guest]

I’ve been saying the same thing on here for past 3-4 yrs . Everyone calls me pessimistic😂. Not so. Just realistic looking at the big picture. By the end of this decade it will be a parade to the scrappers. Lots of sailing jobs lost. If you’re an engineer you’re good to find great work onshore. Deck? If ya can’t retire by then it’s deep sea. Sad outlook

[Guest]

probably do nothing at all. the steel industry on the great lakes isnt in the best of shape {to say the least} so why worry about it. any boatnerd out there want to buy a used tug? contact VTB asap! things arent as rosie as boatnerd thinks they are, maybe harsh but true

I agree! I would expect to see some additional shrinkage in the US fleet in the next few years with units being retired without direct replacement. A good portion of the current US fleet is in the 70 years of age range while even most of the newest, taking aside the handful of new barge units and the Mark W. Barker, are 40-50 years in age. With no replacement tonnage on the horizon coupled with the construction of new vessels taking about 2 years to complete, the future is far from being bright. I lived through the 1980s downsizing of the Great Lakes shipping industry, and no matter how good of a spin can be put on the current and foreseeable business conditions, I would argue that the future outlook is currently worse than 40 years ago.

[guest]

probably do nothing at all. the steel industry on the great lakes isnt in the best of shape {to say the least} so why worry about it. any boatnerd out there want to buy a used tug? contact VTB asap! things arent as rosie as boatnerd thinks they are, maybe harsh but true

[ashland69]

Don't know if this has come up, but what thoughts do you have about how VTB is going to manage or replace the lost carrying capacity of the Thompson? Build, buy and convert or do nothing at all?