Stormy weather

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Guest

Re: Stormy weather

Unread post by Guest »

It shouldn't be forgotten the vast improvements in weather forecasting that have been accomplished in the last 40+ years.

In the Carl D. Bradley and Daniel J. Morrell storms, the numerical weather models were very primitive as compared to today and didn't event take into account the boundary layer above the lakes that can result in higher wind gusts being mixed down to the lake surface. In fact, the model at the time treated the Great Lakes as nonexistent! It didn't take into account the heat storage of the lakes in the Fall and how that provided energy for the deepening of some mid-latitude cyclones moving over the Great Lakes.

It was a bit better by 1975 in that we had an improved numerical weather prediction model. but it only had three grid points over Lake Superior.

In the years following the Edmund Fitzgerald's loss, weather forecasting was improved with weather buoys being deployed to the lakes; while the failure to correctly forecast the rapid intensification of the Presidents' Day Storm of 1979 provided the impetus by government and academia to study and improve the numerical weather prediction models at that time, and that process continues to this day. Vast improvements in computer power has also been of great benefit, as the models can be run at much finer resolutions.

I compiled a list of ships that suffered hull damage while operating in storms:

John O. McKellar - Lake Superior - December 9, 1960 - cracked deck
Daniel J. Morrell - Lake Huron - November 29, 1966 - hull fracture leading to loss complete break of hull and loss of vessel
Edward Y. Townsend - Lake Huron - November 29, 1966 - cracks in deck, hull and internals.
John O. McKellar - Lake Superior - October 17, 1980 - cracks in shell plating, tank tops, etc.
Elton Hoyt 2nd - Lake Huron - December 1983 - Deck fracture
Silver Isle - Lake Superior - April 30, 1984 - hull cracks from main deck to top of sidetanks.

Back in October 1975, David Groh presented a paper on the Interim Great Lakes Strength Standard at a SNAME symposium, which makes for some interesting reading: http://www.shipstructure.org/pdf/75symp09.pdf
Jon Paul
Posts: 888
Joined: December 14, 2017, 8:37 pm

Re: Stormy weather

Unread post by Jon Paul »

This is where I miss the comments from Lakercapt and Capt Metz along with others of the more old time officers and Captains who no longer post here. I do know from talking with Captains and mates who I sailed with that there was more pressure in the 40's, 50's and 60's to sail in Gale force conditions at times. There were far more ships sailing in those years and dropping the hook every time Gale Warnings went up meant long delays with ships stacked up at loading and unloading ports.
A case in point is the loss of the Bradley. In today's atmosphere a boat with obvious cargo hold deterioration bad enough to warrant complete renewal during layup would not be directed to make another trip while in the middle of a major Storm.
GuestfromEU
Posts: 359
Joined: December 7, 2014, 10:33 am

Re: Stormy weather

Unread post by GuestfromEU »

A ship transiting the North Atlantic will encounter 10 meter seas regularly, often greater. They have no choice, they pass through the weather, guided by external weather routing to avoid undue stress on the ship and crew, though voyage management also (some say primarily) serves to reduce fuel consumption by advising the ship how to avoid weather and catch favourable currents or wind. Good shipping companies offer support for a Master's decision to take shelter or avoidance from weather. In the past, written words of support were offered but a phone call may say different. Now anyone can record phone calls which cleaned up scrupulous acts by some shipowners. Smart Masters often take these calls on the Bridge where the VDR records all and follow up with an email recap.

A ship on the Great Lakes is not designed for this weather, though they are certainly seaworthy for the conditions. Specifically on the USA side, there is always the thought a ship could be 60+ years old and the hull already far surpassed the cumulative lifetime stresses expected by the original designers. Further to this many ships were lengthened, further increasing the length to beam ratio which reduces stability and increases stresses overall. This is not to say ships on the lakes are unseaworthy, only that there are factors to consider specific to the region and individual vessels.

I believe some companies still quietly pay an end of year bonus to the Master based on tonnage transported, which can influence decisions of individual Masters. The company I work for prohibited this practice some time ago as money is a great motivator for a safe working ship (example: safety bonus to all crew or the ship's community club fund) but a terrible motivator for one person to base their decision on whether to sail or shelter in weather.
Guest

Re: Stormy weather

Unread post by Guest »

Only the dumb ones throw caution to the winds. None of us want to give Gordon Lightfoot any more song material!!
BigRiver
Posts: 1090
Joined: April 28, 2010, 6:37 pm

Re: Stormy weather

Unread post by BigRiver »

They generally don't throw caution to the wind. Too much to risk.
Scott

Stormy weather

Unread post by Scott »

Knowing all that we know of the effects of Great Lakes storms, I've seen more and more ships hide from the storms recently. My question is, knowing that time is money, at what point does a captain throw caution to the wind and venture out into the lake in order to stay on schedule?
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